The Fate Delusion

“Chance Favors the Prepared Mind”. This is one of the more important quotes that has guided me in life in my later years. We have all heard stories of a single chance meeting or unusual occurrence which has started a chain of events, putting a person on a path which eventually leads to success. Our propensity to eliminate noise makes us see this unbroken path as absolute, rather than a single branch among the scores of possible choices heading off in all directions. Our confirmation bias ensures us that this path was the only path to the ultimate goal. Last but not least, we overlook the mental “Priming” effect which brings this singular event to our attention, and inspires us to act on it. In short, we tend to subscribe to the popular delusion that success is based on fate.

Under closer examination of these success stories, there doesn’t appear to be any consistency in the number of attempts it takes to succeed. Some people have succeeded on what appears to be the first try, while others have only succeeded after a string of failures. This would imply that random events could be what starts a person on the path for success, but in the essence of true randomness, this could take any number of tries, or experiments. We also overlook the years of hard work which is often involved in becoming an “Overnight Success”. I believe that all these stories have one thing in common, a firm focus on success. This mental priming is the key factor.

It is fine to delude ourselves when we are in the safe environment of a Board Game, in fact it is often an important factor, contributing to the fun. The fate delusion is a welcome addition to the “Magic Circle” of the game group. The challenge to game designers, however, is how to employ this to the best effect.

It is critical to “prime” a player in the early part of a game so that they can start off on their path and head in a chosen direction. This can be done with unique character profiles or abilities, proper graphic design clues, a clear game theme, reduced choices in the beginning which expand afterwards, a story-line to follow, and anything else which can create a clear starting point in the players mind and one or more clear directions to head. Once a player is primed to look for certain specific opportunities, and has a clear direction to follow, the designer needs to introduce some choices.

Uncertainty could be introduced by other players actions, causing a player to make a choice and react a certain way. Another common way to induce choice is by introducing random events with cards or dice. However it is done, the players must receive a constant input of decisions to be made, so that they can lay down their path of action. As this decision path becomes more firmly anchored in a player’s mind, the player will be able to peer into the possible future and develop strategies. In the end, the player should be able to see a clear path of action from the beginning to the end of the game. Whether they attribute their victory or loss to fate or skill is completely up to the player and, of course, part of the fun.

Disclaimer…..

I am not an expert, nor am I  successful in publishing games. (Yet!) I am just trying to figure things out and hope you enjoy my occasional rant. Feel free to comment if you agree or disagree, or even if you just want to say hi.

Roger Meloche